Mozambique contributes 0.02% of the world’s CO2 emissions each year. That is 126th in the world, less than Nepal, Belize and Afghanistan. Despite contributing next to nothing to the world's cumulative emissions, Mozambique is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate disasters and their subsequent humanitarian crises. As is so often the case, the countries that contribute the least to climate change are the ones that suffer the most from its consequences.

Mozambique is dealing with climate-induced migration in the south and conflict-induced migration in the north. Tropical Storm Ana made landfall in the southeast African nation last month, destroying hundreds of homes and killing at least twelve people. This is not the first deadly storm to hit Mozambique and unfortunately, they are becoming increasingly prevalent for Mozambique and other countries in the region due to climate change.

Three years ago, Mozambique was hit by two cyclones, Idai and Kenneth, within weeks of each other, leaving over 2 million Mozambicans in need of urgent assistance. The devastating effects of these two climate-induced disasters meant that Mozambique ranked as the most affected country in the world by extreme weather events in 2019. Cyclone Idai was particularly devastating as it left 600 people dead and over 1.5 million people in need of assistance.

Last month, tropical storm Ana hit Madagascar first, then moved inland and devastated Mozambique. Mozambique and Madagascar are the third and fourth poorest countries in the world by gross national income (GNI) per capita, and their economies are extremely vulnerable to climate disasters. 

As of February 8th, tropical storm Ana has killed 38 people and injured 207. One of the major concerns about the long-term effects of the storm is that it has flooded over 90,000 acres of crops which could affect the food security of the already food insecure country.

Battling Many Fronts

All of these storms, which have left hundreds dead and thousands of families without homes, have taken place in a country that is simultaneously battling two other deadly threats: drought and conflict. In that sense, Mozambique exemplifies the fragility that many frontline countries to the climate crisis face. 

Mozambique has been struck by a succession of brutal droughts that are part of an increasingly common trend in a country that is very vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The conflict in its northern provinces between Islamic-State-linked insurgency groups and the Mozambican military is simultaneously ongoing, straining the country’s ability to fight twin battles on two fronts. 

The drought, the likes of which are becoming more common in this region of Africa due to climate change, has devastated Mozambique’s agriculture. Seventy percent of the country’s population relies on climate-sensitive agricultural production for their food and livelihood.

The drought in Mozambique began in 2016, shortly before al-Shabaab insurgents and Mozambique forces began fighting in the country’s north. This is hardly a coincidence as studies have shown that collective violence often increases after natural disasters because of a scarcity of resources and the weakening of authorities, both of which have occurred in the country. 

If the violence in Mozambique was partially motivated by drought as the evidence suggests, it would not be the first instance of such an occurrence. Climate change-induced droughts across the world acted as a threat multiplier over a decade ago to help spark the Arab Spring. When climate disasters damaged wheat crops across the world, the non-arable countries of North Africa that must import most of their food suddenly found themselves in a price-crisis for many basic staples. In Algeria, Egypt and Tunisia, massive protests broke out over the rising price of food. 

In the lead-up to some of the worst conflicts of the Arab Spring, including the wars in Yemen and Syria, there was considerable movement of displaced peoples within the region motivated by drought. In Syria, the movement of rural families to urban centers during the drought created even more stress over limited resources.

Intersectional Impacts are Really Loss and Damage

Violence against women and children in particular increases in the event of a disaster and this has been one of the most disturbing developments in Mozambique. Widespread accounts of kidnapping, enslavement and rape have been reported in the Cabo Delgado province since the violence started in 2017. The heinous crimes against women have allegedly been perpetrated by Mozambique forces as well as the insurgents.

The years of violence and drought have led to a dire refugee crisis in Mozambique. According to a new study, there are 201,689 internally displaced persons in the three northern provinces (Cabo Delgado, Nampula, Niassa) where the conflict is at its most violent.

As they become more common, climate change-induced disasters act as threat multipliers, putting added pressure on social, economic and political issues. There is a cruel irony in who climate change affects the most. While it is still too early to know the number of displaced persons that tropical storm Ana forced from their homes, the situation in Mozambique is nonetheless a worrying glimpse into the future long-standing losses and damage many countries will suffer. 

Mozambique lost an estimated $4.9 billion due to climate change in its disastrous 2019, and it is still recovering from the damage caused by the storms that year. 2022 may reach similar numbers with tropical storm Ana already wreaking havoc one month in. Mozambique is constantly having to rebuild across the country, using the great majority of its resources to do so, which not only doesn’t give it the opportunity to develop its infrastructure to become more resilient to disasters, but is actually an example of development setbacks enforced by climate change. Put another way, this is clearly an accurate example of loss and damage - in this case, only the economic costs - sustained by the adverse impacts of climate change.  

One may then expect the richest nations in the world to give substantial aid to help exploited countries like Mozambique recover from repetitive climate disasters gaining frequency and intensity with each global emission of the developed world. In fact, in a 1970 UN General Assembly resolution, the richest countries actually promised to give 0.7% of yearly GNI in international aid. However, an OXFAM investigation found that in the 50 years since the resolution was passed, the countries that committed to the aid spending have fallen $5.7 trillion short of their promise. In 2019, Mozambique received $288 million in foreign aid, just 5% of what it lost due to climate change. In 2021, Mozambique received $67 million in foreign aid, which equals just 1% of its 2019 losses. 

There is a cruel irony in who climate change affects the most. The third poorest country in the world, which contributes an infinitesimal portion of the world's CO2 emissions, is devastated year after year by climate disasters to which it has contributed virtually nothing. Meanwhile, the countries that contribute the most, which mostly subscribe to an out of sight out of mind approach when it comes to the victims of climate change, give aid that amounts to just a tiny fraction of what it would actually take to rebuild. The aid is often granted in loans, creating a cycle of odious ‘climate debt’ when countries like Mozambique face repetitive disasters.

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Noah Lourie (he/him) is an Intern, contributing writing to Climate Refugees’ SPOTLIGHT. He is currently a Syracuse University undergraduate student studying advertising at the S.I. Newhouse School Of Public Communications and political science with an emphasis in public policy at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs. He has prior writing experience on congressional campaigns and as an intern with the Environmental Protection Agency. Noah is passionate about creating a more equitable and sustainable future for everyone and believes that bringing the climate refugee crisis to the forefront is vital for doing that. He plans to pursue a career in political communications or environmental law with the goal of always keeping those that are most heavily afflicted by climate change at the center of the discussion.