In a recent longform piece for The Guardian, writer Carey Baraka highlights how many of the lakes in his native Kenya have been flooding since the early 2010s, displacing hundreds of thousands of people and causing substantial losses to the economy, land, and livelihoods. From the Ethiopian border to Lake Victoria, Kenya’s lakes have swelled for the better part of a decade, with responses slow and insufficient. 

Throughout the 2010s, the lakes in the region, which is Kenya’s portion of the Great Rift Valley, rose slowly, displacing tens of thousands of people. But in 2020 a particularly severe rainy season caused the flooding to accelerate. Lake Turkana, in the arid northern part of the country, actually swallowed a nearby lake altogether. Freshwater Lake Baringo, further south, flooded eight miles inland and moved dangerously close to a saltwater lake, which would have devastated wildlife in both, with an inevitable impact on the area’s tourism industry, largely centered around the saltwater lake’s famous flamingos. By some estimates, Baringo has risen at least 9 meters since 2013.

But the timing of the acceleration meant that help was slow to come. Once the pandemic began, government officials seemed to show little interest apart from publicity visits, according to those Baraka spoke with. The situation continued to worsen such that when schools in the region began to reopen following pandemic closures, several schools in the largest town near Lake Baringo had been submerged. Wildlife inevitably began to encroach upon once-inhabited areas, sometimes with deadly consequences. 

In late 2020, after years of scientists and locals alike calling for action, the Kenyan government tasked a team of experts with studying the issue. Their report, released in October 2021, identifies climate change leading to increased rainfall as the major cause of the flooding, with deforestation and other human activity exacerbating the issue. It also noted that some 400,000 Kenyans had already been displaced. These findings are consistent with a July 2021 UN Environment Programme report that focused on Lake Turkana, the brief for which warned that “climate change could likely lead to heavier rains” in the region “which would raise water levels in the lake itself and increase the likelihood of severe flooding”, a potentially “perilous” future for the 15 million people who live on the shores of Turkana.

Unfortunately for those who live near the many lakes of Kenya’s Rift Valley, help has been slow to arrive. The national government’s strategy has largely been to wait and see until outside humanitarian assistance arrives. Baraka heard of promised assistance not materializing in many instances during his field visits.

Of course, as in the case with climate change-induced environmental disasters around the world, who should assist - and who actually does - is contested. The Kenyan government should clearly make addressing the displacement and various other negative impacts of the flooding a higher priority, but the kind of costly, large-scale adaptation measures that are needed to protect the greatest number of people in the region will not be achieved without significant and sustained financial assistance.

If climate change is a major contributor to the crisis - as has been made clear by the Kenyan government, the UN, and many scientists - it stands to reason that the world’s largest polluters should increase their assistance. What is happening in Kenya is a clear example of loss and damage as a result of climate change. The flooding lakes are a major threat to human mobility by displacing a large number of people who may have nowhere else to go, and they are causing loss of traditional territories with cultural and social importance, both of which have been clearly observed by researchers and journalists like Baraka.

As is so often the case, countries like Kenya - relatively poor and exposed to harsh climate conditions - will find it very challenging to deal with climate change loss and damage. Without wealthy countries doing more, things will continue to get worse, in Kenya and elsewhere.

Despite this sobering reality, there is a major gap between what is needed to prepare areas like Kenya’s Rift Valley and what has taken place so far. The Green Climate Fund, which came out of the Paris Agreement and is funded by wealthier nations to help developing countries respond to climate change, is supposed to have a 50-50 split between adaptation - preparing for the effects of climate change - and mitigation - reducing emissions to reduce severity, but so far just 20% of contributions have gone towards adaptation. This leaves residents in climate-vulnerable areas, like those who live along Kenya’s flooding lakes, with woefully inadequate support as they attempt to brace for the worst.

The displacement of hundreds of thousands and destruction of property and livelihoods due to rising water levels in Kenya’s lakes is just one of many examples of loss and damage due to climate change. It remains to be seen whether the Global North will take these losses seriously enough to take meaningful action before it is too late.

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