Ih nuudel, meaning ‘the big migration’ in Mongolian, is what locals have coined the migration in record numbers of rural populations to the capital of Ulaanbaatar. This pattern of migration has been going on for two decades in Mongolia due to various factors, but climate change is drastically exacerbating it. In recent years various international reports have begun highlighting the alarming rate of climatic variations recorded in Mongolia. Between 1940 and 2015 Mongolia had a confirmed increase in temperature of 2.24°C making it “one of the strongest climate warming signals on Earth.” Another report revealed that Mongolia is warming at a rate three times faster than that seen anywhere else on the globe. This is catastrophic for a nation known for its deep relation with the land.
For Mongolians, herding livestock and the nomadic lifestyle associated with it is deeply engrained in the national identity and culture. Currently about 25% of the over 3,000,000 inhabitants in Mongolia are supported economically via livestock with a vast majority of that population located in rural communities. Climatic events like dzuds – a Mongolian term for when animals in the Steppe die in vast numbers in harsh winters combined with dry summers - are increasing in frequency, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of thousands and sometimes millions of livestock. In 2009-2010 a dzud killed off over 10 million animals and in 2018 another left 700,000 dead. This is having devastating implications for herders and meteorological data suggests it will only get worse as a result of climate change. What once used to occur every ten years is increasing in frequency and now being projected at occurring every four to five years.
With large losses in livestock from dzuds most herders are left with nothing. This coupled with inaccessible insurance schemes and limited economic opportunities in rural communities, ultimately results in herders being forced to migrate to the capital of Ulaanbaatar. Despite the promise of economic opportunities, most herders are met with worse situations than they left. Between 2017 and 2020 the Mongolian Government imposed a ban on migrating to the capital in hopes to curb overpopulation and smog but a recent study shows that actually worsened the situation for migrants. Instead of preventing an inflow of migrants it simply made the incoming populations invisible. They were not able to obtain residency in the city, were not able to access public services, and lived in informal settlements. The ban has since been lifted and the government is working to better identify and meet the needs of these climate migrants.
The study demonstrates a familiar drumbeat: migration can be a form of adaptation to climate change. While that is absolutely legitimate, the situation in Mongolia also demonstrates that the rural migration to urban centers is pushed due to a variety of factors ranging from poverty and economic underdevelopment to climate change, the latter exacerbating mere existence.
Once pushed to urban centers, migrants may find some improvements in terms of economic opportunities and access to public services, but the lack of residency rights rural Mongolians face that has negative impacts on all aspects of their lives also highlights the inherent vulnerabilities migrants are exposed to when forced to move in search of better opportunities.
The government ban was likely the outcome of a developing country trying to manage an overwhelming situation it has had very little role in creating. We need to recognize Mongolia’s ‘big migration’ is an example of the loss and damage Mongolia is now facing from the adverse impacts of climate change. That is an impact it should not be alone in bearing and adapting. That role should be reserved for the high emitting developed countries to bear, for surely the time has come to pay up for this loss and damage in Mongolia’s Ih Nuudel.
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Matt Raulerson is an Intern with Climate Refugees writing for SPOTLIGHT and PERSPECTIVES. He is currently completing his MSc in Climate Change and Development from SOAS at the University of London. He lived for over four years in rural Mongolia, volunteering in schools and working at the local youth center. While there he gained first-hand experience with marginalized communities forced to migrate as a result of climate change. Witnessing the interconnectedness of climate change and poverty in Mongolia ultimately led him to pursue his masters. Matt is now currently based in Kyrgyzstan working on wildlife conservation projects and community development.