Study Finds One Billion Will Live in Insufferable Heat Within 50 Years
In a worst case scenario of accelerating emissions, a billion people could face a situation of displacement or face intolerable Sahara Desert-like heat for every additional 1 degree Celsius rise in temperature, according to a new study by the National Academy of Sciences. The authors said they were “floored” by the findings, which put the threats in “human terms”, warning there will be more change in the next 50 years than in the past 6,000 years. The vast majority of humans have lived in temperatures 6C (43F) to 28C (82F) that are ideal for human health and food production – what the authors term a “climate niche” – but with global warming, the average human will experience a temperature increase of 7.5 Celsius when global temperatures reach 3C, which is forecast to happen by 2100. With the largest populations expected in Africa and Asia, this means 30% of the world’s population would live in extreme heat of average temperatures over 29 Celsius (84F), impacting 1.2 billion in India, 485 million in Nigeria and more than 100 million each in Pakistan, Indonesia and Sudan. The challenges and pressures imposed on migration and food security will be enormous. Those with means will adapt but this will not be the case for most of the world's populations, likely entrenched in poverty. The authors are calling on policymakers to accelerate emission cuts and work on a global approach towards migration, urging that each degree of warming avoided equates to averting a billion people falling out of humanity’s “climate niche.” (The Guardian)