Much of Pakistan is underwater right now.
Heavy rains beginning in June have flooded over a third of the country following the wettest monsoon season since 1961, a disaster so large it can be seen from space. The Balochistan and Sindh provinces alone have seen a 400% increase in rainfall compared to averages over the last 30 years.
Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. The flooding certainly seems like the result of climate change, effects which just this year were exacerbated by months-long heatwaves across parts of India and Pakistan that recorded temperatures near 50 degrees Celsius, 122F. The heatwaves led to multiple forest fires across the country.
That heatwave contributed to the rapid glacial and snow melt that extreme temperatures have been generating in Pakistan for some time. Pakistan is home to over 7,200 glaciers - the highest anywhere outside of the poles.
33 million people - that’s one in seven Pakistanis - are affected, half a million are displaced, but it’s expected the numbers will likely be much higher. At least 1,300 people have lost their lives in the immediate flooding. Humanitarian assistance is vital to safeguard further deaths from water-borne disease, and in the displacement aftermath.
The scale of livelihood loss is staggering. Several dams have been breached, causing wide-spread infrastructural damage to houses, buildings, roads and entire towns. Inundated agrarian fields, in addition to having devastating impacts on landholders and agricultural workers, will undoubtedly cause major ripple effects throughout the economy given how important farming is in the country: a quarter of Pakistan’s GDP and half of its employed labor force relies on agriculture.
In just one example, half of the cotton crop in the southeastern province of Sindh has been lost, according to NPR. Images of the province shared by Pakistan’ Minister for Climate Change show floodwaters as far as the eye can see. It is simply impossible for many in Pakistan to remain in their homes and pursue their typical livelihoods.
Continuing food shortages are also likely, with prices soaring at markets in a country already suffering from double-digit inflation.
Pakistan faced devastating floods in 2010 also, where 2,000 people lost their lives. With damage to infrastructure, livelihoods and crops widespread, the UN issued its largest ever donor appeal at over $2 billion. Now that devastation has repeated, and with scenes of entire buildings, roads and towns being washed away, many re-built along rivers, questions are being raised why lessons weren’t learned.
One of us (Amali) worked briefly on that 2010 humanitarian response. In the aftermath, promises and plans for building back with climate resilience were plenty, but for a variety of reasons from poor leadership, projects losing focus, to oppressive international debt burdens and more, plans were abandoned.
But let’s not also forget the lack of international climate adaptation funding that developed countries failed to deliver to Pakistan and other developing countries disproportionately burdened by the effects of climate change.
In 2009, polluting countries promised $100 billion in annual climate finance to help developing countries adapt to the adverse effects of climate change, but that promise has yet to be delivered. Thirteen years later, with climate impacts creating development setbacks throughout the Global South, that annual need is now estimated to be in the trillions of dollars.
Being a highly vulnerable country to climate change, Pakistan should absolutely receive climate reparations now to help deal with the loss and damage initially estimated to be near 10 billion USD.
The 2015 Paris Agreement specified parties were to “avert, minimize and address loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change” but developed countries responsible for climate change - chiefly the United States - have as yet sidestepped efforts to fund a separate loss and damage finance facility, while simultaneously falling short on climate adaptation and mitigation efforts.
This November, at COP27 in Egypt, all attention will be focused on this issue of loss and damage. Just this week, Climate Refugees joined 400 organizations demanding that Loss and Damage finance be on the formal agenda at COP27. The letter was submitted to UN climate change Heads of Delegations and comes as governments and negotiating groups prepare to meet for informal consultations on Loss and Damage in Cairo, Egypt on 10 September.
While the Pakistani government takes stock of the immense loss and damage caused by the floodwaters, it is important to view this disaster through the lens of an ever-worsening global climate crisis and the inextricably linked issue of climate justice.
On one hand, Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to climate change. The link between climate change and increasingly severe monsoon seasons is well-established: warmer sea and air temperatures both contribute to storms with higher levels of rainfall. Combined with melting glaciers in Pakistan’s highlands, major flooding events are only expected to become more frequent in the country.
At the same time, Pakistan contributes less than one percent of global emissions responsible for climate change. Unfortunately, Pakistan is just one of many countries facing this acute climate injustice, something we have known about for years. And within vulnerable countries, it will be the poor and marginalized who will bear the brunt of localized impacts.
Pakistan is facing a stark climate future. Glacial melt today harkens warnings of a looming water crisis. Add to that, like many Global South countries, it is grappling with multiple crises for which it bears little responsibility: climate change, structural inequality and chronic hunger in an economic system heavily dependent on fossil fuels and tilted in favor of the Global North that leaves much of the Global South populations and its countries behind.
The aid flowing to Pakistan from the US, UK and other developed countries is not only insufficient, it’s inadequate in the face of the Global North's historic and continued carbon emissions. Aid alone will not be sufficient to respond to the growing climate crises in Pakistan and Global South countries. The era of loss and damage from the climate crisis is here, and it’s time for the Global North to pay up for its part in creating and perpetuating the climate crisis.
For more on climate displacement in Pakistan, check out these past SPOTLIGHTS
