Winter has come to Gaza as Israel’s military assault on the Strip nears 100 days following a Hamas-led attack on October 7. One percent of Gaza’s population has been killed. Nearly two million people are displaced. Disease, starvation and winter weather could threaten the survival of the millions living in tents, as heavy rains, flooding and cold winds worsen the catastrophic humanitarian situation.

Gaza is one of the world’s most densely populated places. A narrow strip of land only 141 sq. miles (365 sq. km.), it is home to 2.1 million Palestinians, 81 percent of whom are refugees. In addition to the humanitarian and political crises created by multiple years of recurring conflict, Gaza is also highly vulnerable to climate change. This includes experiencing more frequent and increased cold snaps in winter months and temperatures rising 20 percent faster than anywhere else in the world.

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has examined the intersections of the environment, climate change and conflict extensively, and as the ICRC puts it, Gaza is “where the effects of climate change exacerbate serious humanitarian needs resulting from an unresolved conflict.”

Gaza is situated within the Mediterranean Basin, which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has deemed a highly climate vulnerable region. The Israeli Meteorological Service has also expressed concern about the region’s climate vulnerabilities. While global temperatures have risen 1.1°C since pre-industrial times, temperatures in Israel and Palestine have risen by 1.5°C (2.7°F). By the end of the century, temperatures are expected to increase by 4°C (7.2°F).

According to the ICRC’s new report, “Weathering the storm: Reducing the impact of climate risks and environmental degradation on people enduring armed conflicts”, Gaza is also projected to see more erratic and decreased rainfall - 20 percent less by 2050. At the same time, temperatures are expected to keep rising, as much as 2.5 degrees by 2055, alongside increasing dry spells, heatwaves and droughts. Making matters worse, sea-level rise poses risks of coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion into Gaza’s “already depleted, contaminated and over-extracted aquifer, while groundwater and soil pollution and waste disposal problems are exacerbating environmental degradation.”

Historically, Gaza has been a highly agrarian-dependent society. But the 17-year Israeli blockade on Gaza has restricted the export of agricultural products and the import of vital inputs, such as fertilizers and farming and irrigation equipment. It has also contributed to food insecurity as fertile lands are shrinking due to buffer zones, Israeli military encroachments, and subsequent environmental damage.

According to UN experts, Gazans now make up 80 percent of all people facing famine or catastrophic hunger worldwide. Since the 27 October military ground offensive, 22 percent of farms and agricultural land in northern Gaza has been razed by Israeli forces. Israel has reportedly destroyed 70 percent of Gaza’s fishing fleet. Livestock are starving, unable to provide food or be a source of food.

It is not difficult to see how climate change now compounds the crisis. With rainfall and agricultural production in decline and temperature extremes running a continuum of heat waves and cold snaps, the losses are already well-known. Abu Ibrahim, a farmer in Gaza, told the ICRC in 2021:

"I own 120 olive trees, which would usually produce 12 tons of olives. This year, however, they produced one ton only! The extreme temperatures and uneven distribution of rainfall have seriously impacted the flowering phase and tree-load. We've never witnessed such a decrease in tree-load over the past ten years".

Into this climate insecurity comes the environmental damage sustained by the latest war in Gaza. The natural environment is often an overlooked victim of conflict. Briefing the UN Security Council on the impacts of climate change, environmental degradation and armed conflict,  ICRC’s President said, “in armed conflict the natural environment or civilian infrastructure is often harmed or destroyed, which can in turn have environmental consequences that can contribute to climate change.”

The Explosive Impact

In just the first six weeks of the war, Israel dropped a staggering 29,000 bombs on Gaza. By contrast, the United States dropped 29,199 bombs on the whole of Iraq over one year. A majority of the bombs have been 2,000 pounds with impacts reaching far and wide, shooting fragments as much as 1,000 feet away from the point of impact. One human rights monitor estimates 25,000 tons of explosives have been dropped on Gaza since October 7. Increasing the expansive destruction, a US intelligence assessment found that nearly half of the munitions dropped on Gaza have been unguided.

The indiscriminate bombing has had a destructive effect on life, infrastructure and ecosystems. The loss to life now stands at 22,835 killed and 58,416 injured as of January 7.

Into these massive human and infrastructure losses now come environmental losses as well - some acute as water and sanitation systems collapse, others catastrophic if Israel’s flooding of underground tunnels with seawater strike Gaza’s dwindling freshwater supplies and reserves.

The environmental damage sustained by the latest war in Gaza is extensive. Even before this latest October 2023 conflict, recurring wars had already damaged Gaza’s water infrastructure. Fresh water was in short supply, and 90-95 percent of Gaza’s groundwater was already undrinkable due to contamination with wastewater and seawater. Currently, access to water is severely limited by Israel, falling 15 liters short of the survival-levels required by established humanitarian standards. At a COP28 side event this past November, officials from the Palestinian Water Resources Energy and the Environmental Quality Authority briefed that not only is Gaza’s coastal aquifer at risk of saltwater intrusion, but additionally, the unfeasible and expensive water purchase agreement with Israel, unchanged since 1995, simply did not provide enough water to meet all of Palestine’s needs. 

Tens of thousands of unrecovered bodies are decomposing under rubble. Thousands of explosives from the current and previous wars have polluted the air and ground, including highly incendiary white phosphorus, leaving another toxic layer of chemicals in Gaza’s air and soil.

Estimating the full scope of the environmental damage from the many weapons dropped on Gaza may never be known due to a lack of established measures and political will. A recent study tentatively estimates that the carbon emissions generated in just 60 days of the war are greater than the annual carbon footprint of more than 20 of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations. Acknowledging that it is likely an underestimate, the researchers attribute over 99 percent of the 281,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide emitted to Israel’s aerial bombardment and ground invasion of Gaza, and about 713 tons to Hamas rockets fired into Israel.

Though these carbon emissions might be small in comparison to global emissions, estimates suggest that, cumulatively, global wars are responsible for 5.5 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. The point is, war is problematic - least for climate reasons - but it is often the chosen outcome of a political system that fails to center human life. As President of the Jordan Environment Union, Omar Shoshan recently said, “wars have a direct impact on climate change by increasing carbon emissions and destroying infrastructure. The Gaza Strip is a stark example in the face of a complex crisis from a humanitarian, environmental, health and climate perspective due to the repeated wars it has experienced in recent years.”

Protecting Common Ground

Last year, briefing the UN Security Council, the co-directors from Israel and Palestine of the peacebuilding and environmental NGO EcoPeace Middle East said climate change was compounding the political and humanitarian crises in the region. They warned that without positive diplomatic cooperation, climate change would continue to have a dire effect on water and food security in Gaza and the West Bank.

Similarly, in yet another briefing to the Security Council, the ICRC once again reminded Council members of the compounding impacts of climate change, environmental degradation and armed conflict on vulnerable populations, humanitarian crises and increasing risks and inequalities in conflict zones. Furthermore, the ICRC stressed that though the natural environment is protected under international humanitarian law (IHL), it continues to be a “silent casualty of war”.

The environment should be protected during armed conflict. Article 35(3) of the 1977 Additional Protocol I (AP I) to the 1949 Geneva Conventions and Rule 45 of the ICRC Customary IHL Study specifically prohibits methods and warfare that cause widespread, long-term and severe damage to the natural environment, and establishes that due regard must be given to protection and preservation of the environment. Rule 45 also prohibits the destruction of the natural environment as a weapon of warfare, while Article 55 of AP I prohibits reprisal attacks on the environment as well.

In addition, the natural environment is protected under general principles of IHL that govern civilian objects not considered a military objective, (Art 52(2) of AP I and Rule 9 of ICRC’s Customary IHL Study) and all principles governing the conduct of hostilities, such as precaution, proportionality and distinction, also apply. Furthermore, all obligations under international environmental law, international human rights law and other branches of international law continuously apply during armed conflicts.

Looking to the future, the current Gaza war is threatening Middle East climate actions. Recent climate diplomacy between Israel and a number of key Arab states, including partnerships on water conservation and renewable energy, are now likely on hold.

The climate crisis presents an opportunity for cooperation - regional, Israeli and Palestinian cooperation built along dependency on shared natural resources. Climate-induced groundwater scarcity in Gaza will eventually impact Israelis across the fence as well, even while factoring disparities in water provisions that Israel presently controls.

With this being the sixth war in Gaza since 2008, carbon emissions from the massive bombardments have surely contributed heavily to the dire climate risks facing the region. There is widespread agreement that military interventions to the long-standing occupation and conflict will not provide the necessary peace that has been elusive since 1948. In the absence of solutions for over 75 years, the climate crisis can present opportunities to unify parties that have agreed on very little to finally find common ground. And the international community, including the climate community, would be wise to leverage both crises towards an immediate peace and lasting solutions.

source links to this article was updated on January 16