Middle East

The Not-So-Hidden Climate Risks for Gaza's Displaced

The Not-So-Hidden Climate Risks for Gaza's Displaced

Gaza is one of the world’s most densely populated places. A narrow strip of land only 141 sq. miles (365 sq. km.), it is home to 2.1 million Palestinians, 81 percent of whom are refugees. In addition to the humanitarian and political crises created by multiple years of recurring conflict, Gaza is also highly vulnerable to climate change. This includes experiencing more frequent and increased cold snaps in winter months and temperatures rising 20 percent faster than anywhere else in the world.

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has examined the intersections of the environment, climate change and conflict extensively, and as the ICRC puts it, Gaza is “where the effects of climate change exacerbate serious humanitarian needs resulting from an unresolved conflict.”

Temperature Rise, Increased Droughts Will Cause Widespread Loss & Displacement in Middle East & Beyond

Temperature Rise, Increased Droughts Will Cause Widespread Loss & Displacement in Middle East & Beyond

Human migration due to droughts in particular will increase by at least 200% throughout the rest of the 21st century, according to a recent study published in International Migration Review. The Stony Brook University team worked from 16 climate models and social science data to generate their predictions, focusing on two scenarios. In an ‘optimistic’ scenario, in which countries live up to their Paris Agreement commitments, the percentage increase in drought-induced migration stands at 200%. In a pessimistic scenario, based on current energy use and emissions, that number has the potential to reach a staggering 500% increase.

The World Cup of Climate Injustice

The World Cup of Climate Injustice

When the world’s best players take the field in November, they will be playing in stadiums that at least 6,500 migrant workers died to build. It is believed that the number could actually be much higher, Of the countries that sent a large number of migrant workers to Qatar, India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are the only ones that actually kept track of how many of their citizens have died. Since 2010, an average of 12 people have died each week constructing the World Cup infrastructure from these five countries alone. Other countries with a large number of workers in Qatar, including The Philippines and Kenya, have not kept track of fatalities. On average nearly two workers have passed away daily, listed officially as ‘natural causes.

Climate Change Displacing Already Vulnerable Iraqis; Spells Trouble for Region

Climate Change Displacing Already Vulnerable Iraqis; Spells Trouble for Region

With about 30 percent of Iraq covered in desert, all of these added climate problems, along with a population rapidly increasing, which we detailed in this earlier Spotlight, renders an already vulnerable population from conflict, geopolitical tensions, decades of sanctions, chronic poverty and corruption, rather fragile. It’s no wonder then that right now, thousands of families across Iraq continue to be displaced from their homes in rural parts of the country due to the loss of arable land and water scarcity.

Water, Energy, Food Security Key to MENA Stability

Dave Herring/UNSPLASH

Dave Herring/UNSPLASH

Water, Energy and Food Security Key to MENA Stability

This author believes if continued to go unchecked, insecurity in the “water-food-energy” nexus will lead to political unrest, displacement and instability in the Middle East region. In the context of climate change and population demographics, a finite amount of water in the Middle East risks sustainable development, poverty and human survival. Water resources are critically low throughout the region with major aquifers overused. Add to that, drought in countries like Yemen and Syria, have contributed to steep declines in food production and conflict, and with it, displacement, which in turn has impacted production and cultivation. Years of conflict in Yemen has forced the import of basic food production, while Syria’s drought and displacement have impacted food security, and possibly contributed to the conflict. 

Rural water supply is limited to springs, depleted these past 20 years due to agricultural irrigation in Oman, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, formerly the sixth largest wheat exporter. That water insecurity has driven rural to urban migration across many MENA countries, further straining crumbling public infrastructure. 

Moving into renewable energies and reducing dependency on water-intensive sectors will be vital but the World Bank estimates it will cost $1 trillion by 2050. Water security can and is being pursued through recycling and desalination, with the MENA region accounting for half of the word’s desalination capacity. Recycling, though, is crucial, as the region fails to recycle 80% of wastewater. (The Arab Weekly)

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Climate change is increasingly driving migration throughout the world. Yet, as climate change weakens economic growth in countries in the Global South, many are finding themselves too poor to migrate, stripping many of a key climate adaptation tool. This was one of the main findings of a recent study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

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Temperature Rise, Increased Droughts Will Cause Widespread Loss & Displacement in Middle East & Beyond
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Human migration due to droughts in particular will increase by at least 200% throughout the rest of the 21st century, according to a recent study published in International Migration Review. The Stony Brook University team worked from 16 climate models and social science data to generate their predictions, focusing on two scenarios. In an ‘optimistic’ scenario, in which countries live up to their Paris Agreement commitments, the percentage increase in drought-induced migration stands at 200%. In a pessimistic scenario, based on current energy use and emissions, that number has the potential to reach a staggering 500% increase.

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A new UK foreign office-funded study has found extreme climate events like cyclones, storms, floods and drought are driving residents in Odisha’s coastal Kendrapara district and Jharkhand’s Palamu districts to migrate. Alarmingly, the social protections available are increasingly stretched beyond capacity to accommodate the increasing climate events, driving residents to migrate and in turn, increasing their vulnerabilities to trafficking.

At the same time, an extreme heat wave has been impacting thousands across India and Pakistan, which the World Weather Attribution says is 30 times more likely because of the effects of climate change, and in fact, “would have been extraordinarily rare without human-induced climate change.”

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Global South Leading the Way Via Climate Vulnerable Forum
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On April 27, 2022, the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF), an international partnership of global South countries highly vulnerable to a warming planet, released a telling report titled “Climate Survival Leadership Barometer”. The report was released under the CVF’s signature initiative “Midnight Survival Deadline for the Climate”, which served to remind governments of the obligations they had taken on at the UN Climate Change Conference at Paris, or COP21, in 2015. The report analyzes updates to national mitigation and adaptation targets – referred to as “Nationally Determined Contributions” (NDCs) that countries committed to revise every five years starting in 2020 to deliver on the Paris Agreement. Some notable findings on the adaptation side are worth highlighting, for they speak to the collective will (or lack thereof) of governments to institutionalize the very resiliency-building measures needed to address root causes of migration in a climate crisis-stricken world.

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Sustainability, Even in Refuge
Sustainability, Even in Refuge

Eighty-five percent of the world's refugees are hosted by the world’s poorest countries. More often than not when they escape from a dire situation, they find refuge in a place with fewer resources than where they fled. Because of this, it largely falls on the refugees themselves to sustainably develop their communities. In many places, despite the hardships, they are doing just that.

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Climate Stress Spells Cycles of Distress for Farmers
Climate Stress Spells Cycles of Distress for Farmers

As climate disasters increase, so too does the cost associated with them. A new UN report on disaster risk reduction shows that disaster events across the world have steadily increased over the past few decades and they are only predicted to grow in regularity, to the point where we will soon be facing 1.5 disasters each day across the world.

The average number of disaster events per year between 1980 and 1999 was 200, and in 2015 there were 400. By 2030, the number of disasters may balloon to upwards of 560 per year and the average trends suggest a 30% increase from 2000 to 2030.

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Justice for Odisha’s Climate Migrants
Justice for Odisha’s Climate Migrants

Due to a lack of economic opportunity and common natural disasters, Odisha has long been a source of migrant workers both in India and abroad. For decades, economic stagnation in the region paired with growth and urbanization around other parts of India meant that Odisha was already a hotbed for migrants before climate change became a more prominent push factor. Today, it is one of the most affected regions in India by climate change which is only pushing more and more people to migrate both temporarily and permanently.

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