An impending second infestation in as many years that could destroy sugarcane, cotton, rice, fruit and vegetable crops is a deeper concern for farmers than the current novel coronavirus pandemic. The Sindh province chief minister warns of a “massive locust attack” expected from Iran in mid-May, worse than the previous year. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is warning of dire food insecurity if the crops are eaten by locusts, prices of staples like flour and vegetables skyrocketing and losses as high as $2.8 billion for summer crops and $2.2 billion for winter crops. Last year, Pakistan suffered its worst attack of locusts since 1993 in all four of its provinces, for which it was unprepared, and a repeat this year in the midst of COVID-19 could be catastrophic for Pakistan’s poorest communities. Unprecedented rains in Sindh’s desert led to vegetation cover that enabled locust breeding and crop attacks. FAO and climate scientists say warming oceans have led to increased cyclones in the Indian Ocean, causing heavy rainfall in the Arabian Peninsula and Horn of Africa, creating the perfect environment for locust breeding and the resulting swarms seen in East Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Insects are laying eggs in nearly 40% of Pakistan and previously unaffected regions are now also impacted. Experts predict swarms, much larger than the ones in 2019, breeding in Pakistan’s deserts are likely to be joined by others in Iran, with more arriving from the Horn of Africa around July. The swarms are expected to be much larger than those in 2019 and travel in swarms of 30 to 50 million insects that cover 93 miles and devour 200 tons of crops per day. (Reuters)
Analysis
Per UNHCR estimates, Pakistan hosts 1.4 million Afghan refugees within its borders. As of today, Pakistan has 35,788 COVID-19 cases, the majority split between the Punjab and Sindh provinces, where 770 people have died. Neighboring Iran has 115,000 COVID-19 cases and hosts approximately 3 million Afghans. Together, Pakistan and Iran, host 90% of the world’s 2.7 million Afghan refugees. Afghanistan has 5,639 COVID-19 cases, and Afghan refugees in Iran and Pakistan, despite persistent violence in the country, including a horrific terror attack this week, continue to return home due to the coronavirus pandemic in Iran and Pakistan. Meanwhile, it’s the holy month of Ramadan, ending in late May, where an uptick in food buying and consumption is likely, all of which can have an impact on market supply and demand, further contributing to concerns of regional food insecurity. With pandemic response, economic losses and additional humanitarian needs converging with spikes in food insecurity, violence and refugee returns, the pressures are immense for not only some of the world’s most vulnerable populations but also those living on the margins of survival.
