Shocking Study Finds 1 Billion or More to be Displaced or in Intolerable Heat in 50 Years

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Study Finds One Billion Will Live in Insufferable Heat Within 50 Years

In a worst case scenario of accelerating emissions, a billion people could face a situation of displacement or face intolerable Sahara Desert-like heat for every additional 1 degree Celsius rise in temperature, according to a new study by the National Academy of Sciences. The authors said they were “floored” by the findings, which put the threats in “human terms”, warning there will be more change in the next 50 years than in the past 6,000 years. The vast majority of humans have lived in temperatures 6C (43F) to 28C (82F) that are ideal for human health and food production – what the authors term a “climate niche” – but with global warming, the average human will experience a temperature increase of 7.5 Celsius when global temperatures reach 3C, which is forecast to happen by 2100. With the largest populations expected in Africa and Asia, this means 30% of the world’s population would live in extreme heat of average temperatures over 29 Celsius (84F), impacting 1.2 billion in India, 485 million in Nigeria and more than 100 million each in Pakistan, Indonesia and Sudan. The challenges and pressures imposed on migration and food security will be enormous. Those with means will adapt but this will not be the case for most of the world's populations, likely entrenched in poverty. The authors are calling on policymakers to accelerate emission cuts and work on a global approach towards migration, urging that each degree of warming avoided equates to averting a billion people falling out of humanity’s “climate niche.” (The Guardian)

Kenya Bans Entry to Camps - (We Go Inside Locked Down Camp)

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Kenya Bans Entry to Two Refugee Camps Hosting 400,000 People

As part of a containment strategy against coronavirus, movement in and out of Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps is now restricted but UNHCR says this does not represent a “significant change” for the refugees. Movement passes out of the area was halted in March but now host communities are blocked from leaving the area altogether and movement into the area is restricted with humanitarian movement allowed on a case by case basis but aid entry is permissible. UNHCR has reportedly altered operations in both camps to avoid gatherings and plans to distribute two months food rations at once to reduce contact between residents and humanitarian workers. Health and social distancing information is being shared via mobile phone apps like WhatsApp. Kenya has yet to record any cases in the two camps, which houses 217,000 people in eastern Kenya in Dadaab along the Somali border, and 190,000 in northwestern Kenya along the South Sudanese border, respectively. The majority of refugees hail from Somalia, South Sudan and Ethiopia. Health experts and humanitarians warn a COVID-19 outbreak in either camp would be catastrophic, where Dadaab has a quarantine capacity for only 2,000 people and one dedicated COVID-19 health facility with 110 beds. (Al Jazeera)

Bonus

The above footage was sent to us from Ethiopian refugee and Kakuma refugee camp resident Korsamo who wanted to show us life in the camp today after the lockdown and new restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Korsamo came to Kakuma several years ago to seek refuge from persecution, where he met his wife and now has a family of three. He usually supplements his food rations with a meager income earned as a moto driver. Now, under the new restrictions, the usual hustle and bustle in the camp, (which we have witnessed first hand while living and working there) has come to a standstill, and with it, his income. For more on life in Kakuma, check out the film Invisible City, shot on location in Kakuma by filmmaker Lieven Corthouts known to us during our time in Kakuma. 

Why Refugees are an Asset in the Coronavirus Fight

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Why Refugees are an Asset in the Fight Against Coronavirus

The authors, refugee advocates and authors of a new book that highlights the important contributions of refugee-led organizations, now turn that focus to the ongoing refugee response to prevent the spread of coronavirus in places where NGOs and the UN are constrained. In Uganda, home to 1.4 million refugees, refugee-led organizations are responding in both camps and cities. In the Nakivale Settlement, the Wakati Foundation is employing refugees to sew and distribute masks, while also raising community awareness about the virus. In Arua, the Global Society Initiative for Peace and Democracy is conducting hygiene and sanitation information campaigns to slow the spread of the virus. In the urban refugee center of Kampala, fears of the secondary economic problems the pandemic creates are acute as the lockdown restricts access to essential food and health needs. UNHCR acknowledges its struggle to meet  the needs of urban refugees and so again, refugee-led organization Hope for Children and Women Victims of Violence is filling critical gaps through distribution of food and soap to over 400 refugees, while another refugee-led organization is distributing food and soap to 200 vulnerable households. Similar responses are taking place in Nairobi, Kenya in the refugee-crowded Eastleigh neighborhood. The 2016 World Humanitarian Summit “Grand Bargain” recognized people affected by crises as first responders, and yet, these organizations remain on the periphery of the humanitarian system that still enforces a separation between the provider and the beneficiary because of stringent standards and compliance that hitherto have not allowed these organizations an opportunity. The unique challenges imposed by the novel coronavirus may prove an opportunity to examine the asymmetry within the system and highlight the valuable role played by refugee-led organizations to ensure their contribution is recognized by UN agencies and donor governments. In turn, with effective training and capacity building, new humanitarian partnerships can emerge that are both participatory and inclusive. (The Conversation)

Vatican Commits to Aiding IDPs

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Pope Francis and the Vatican Commit to Aiding Internally Displaced People

Pope Francis has created a migrants and refugees section of the Vatican Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development in order to lead initiatives for the millions forcibly displaced by war, natural disasters and climate change, and will preside over the section himself in a show of commitment to the cause. At the launch, the undersecretary of the section said the post COVID-19 world emerging demonstrates the contribution internally displaced people (IDP) have made in the fight against the virus. The Vatican released a new volume, informed by the annual displacement studies of the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre and the Norwegian Refugee Council, devoted to protecting and integrating internally displaced people, and called on NGOs and dioceses to advocate for the protection of IDPs. The Church highlighted the plight of global IDPs from Syria to the United States, identifying those displaced by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and warned of the impending dangers climate change poses to further displacement and denigration of the human rights of IDPs, adding that the Church sees climate displacement as a new and growing category it will be examining further in the days to come. (Religious News Service)

Malaysia Detains Hundreds of Refugees & Migrants During COVID19

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Malaysia Detains Hundreds of Refugees and Migrants During Virus Lockdown

Human Rights Watch and the Asia Pacific Refugee Rights Network says over 700 migrants, including children, and Rohingya refugees from Myanmar were detained this past Friday, which the government claims was in response for illegally living in the country. Public anger has been turning towards migrants, with some accusing them of spreading the coronavirus and burdening government resources. Immigration raids preceded the arrests, where media photos showed dozens of migrants packed in trucks that usually carry foreign nationals to known cramped and unhygienic detention centers, while other migrants in crowds looked on. Malaysia, which does not recognize refugees under international law, has about 2 million registered foreign workers but the government estimates many more reside illegally. UNHCR confirmed that a small number of asylum-seekers had been detained. The location of the raids was near three buildings that had previously been placed under strict lockdowns last month following a surge in COVID-19 cases. (Reuters)

(Podcast): When Climate Hits Home

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Podcast: When Climate Hits Home

In this podcast, Foreign Policy speaks to Ama Francis, a native of Dominica and a climate law fellow at Columbia Law School’s Sabin Center for Climate Change Law about ways to change immigration policy to help those whose homelands have been destroyed. Hurricane Maria destroyed much of Dominica in 2017, forcing 20% of the island’s inhabitants to permanently leave due to loss of their homes, jobs and livelihoods. The hurricane devastated the economy with 224% GDP loss and brought home the prescient threat of climate change. Francis states that although island states have fewer people displaced by disasters per capita, they rank in the top 10 of states most severely impacted by displacement risk with 5.9% of populations displaced each year by sudden onset climate events. These disasters and displacements have lasting effects for generations and erodes countries’ development opportunities as was the case with Dominica's last hurricane in 1979, which forced families to leave permanently when schools shut down for months and the economy came to a standstill. The development loss is felt for decades when revenue from tax gains are eroded and eventually, that economic loss is felt deeply when climate resilience policies meant to help people stay in place asks populations to construct according to new building codes that can withstand a category 5 hurricane are impossible when people lack the means to even buy the materials. 

Francis says migration can be an opportunity for people moving and for sending and receiving countries and does not have to be seen in the current light of despair. She states that planning is the key and laws and policies that allow people to move before a disaster strikes affirms human dignity by allowing for choice before people are faced with no choice. One way this is possible is by matching countries like Dominica with countries facing a labor gap, like Canada. Pointing to existing free movement agreements such as in the EU and among 120 countries, she calls for further legal structures that help people to move and less focus on the false narrative of migration contributing to political instability and security threats. The free movement agreements are not open borders, rather they are regional trade agreements that allow people to move for work through easing of visa requirements, for example, that further mutually beneficial travel.

Development actors like USAID spend a lot of money trying to help people stay in place, and while that is good since that is their right and many people want to stay in their countries, Francis says, we must also create situations for people to develop and move, if necessary. (Our note: as is their fundamental human right as well!) 

Asked if rich countries owe developing countries for their part in contributing to global warming, Francis says they owe resource sharing in financial terms, jobs, education and opportunities for robbing of the “global commons.” (Foreign Policy)